This is the month-on-month annualised percentage change in my leading index. The data for the last couple of months are provisional. Normally, I would regard this as not long enough to call a recession, but since the causes of the recession are not changes in monetary policy, but an artificially induced collapse in confidence as a result of Trump's tariff policies, which I don't see ending any time soon, I think it's more plausible to argue that the economic data are now confirming my a proiri expectations.
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