Australian recovery probably OK

This chart shows YoY changes in my Australian leading and coinciding indices.  The leading index has been brought forward by 6 months, which gives us a forecast of what is likely to happen to the economy.  It suggests that economic activity is likely to accelerate.

However, my leading index is based on indicators which would normally lead recoveries and recessions.  There is no recent precedent for the damage wreaked by a trade war, and worse, by random changes in tariff levels, up one week and down the next.  These would be picked up by confidence indicators, both business and consumer.  But although consumer confidence rose sharply from 2023 lows, it has merely levelled off since January.   Business confidence is still holding up.  The most up-to-date activity indicators, the PMI series, are, so far, still rising.

Unlike the data in the US, which are already suggesting a slowdown at best and a recession at worst, Ozzie data still point to a recovery.   I'll go with that for now.