From Zeke Hausfather
April 2025 was the second warmest April on record (after 2024) in the ERA5 dataset, at around 1.51C above preindustrial levels.
With the first four months of the year now available, I estimate that 2025 is most likely to be the second warmest year on record at 1.52C in ERA5, with a ~8% chance of beating 2024 as the warmest and a ~25% chance of coming in at the third warmest after 2023.
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