The first real data for China for April 2025 have just come out. Both the NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) Caixin Bank's PMIs fell. The chart below shows the extreme-adjusted average. Other (daily) data point to a similar conclusion (reminder to self: must construct my daily China index!!)
China (who knows exactly how big its economy is?) is prolly about 15 to 20% of the world economy. But it will be far from the only economy being pushed into recession by Trump's demented tariff policies and flip-flops. It's hard to see how the world won't avoid recession this year.
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