Why Trump and big oil won't win

 This is my chart using data from Our World In Data of the price of PV panels in US$ per watt, in constant 2024 dollars.  In other words, a 5000 kW system, ignoring inverter, grid connections, land, and installation would cost 5000x30 cents, or $1500.  (Of course, this pricing is for wholesale systems with economies of scale; a rooftop solar system would be more expensive.)   This is a 99.8% fall from 1975.

Note logarithmic scale

On its own, this is not enough to show that solar will provide most of our power, inevitably, eventually.  After all, the denialists will gleefully tell you the sun doesn't shine at night (goodness me, who knew?) 

So you've got to add the cost of storage.  And the fact is, battery prices are falling even faster than PV prices. 

This chart shows BNEF's battery costs survey data, also in constant dollars, with my estimates for 2025 and 2026.  If you do the numbers, it turns out that adding 4 hours of storage to a solar farm will add just $12/MWh of electricity generated to the cost.  Adding 8 hours storage would cost $24/MWh, which is still cheaper than new coal, or (outside the US) new gas.

Note log scale

But, I hear the denialists wail, what about dunkeflaute, those periods in high latitudes when there is no wind, and little solar, and it's cold?  Well, until we get long-term storage, we will need gas peaking.  We can make the gas using electrolysis of water, and using the hydrogen produced to make methane via the Sabatier system, which would in effect be long-term storage.  Or we can go on using fossil gas.  But even if we do the latter, we will still have cut emissions from electricity generation by 95%.  

A final chart from Our World in Data.  It shows a classic "learning curve".  A new technology starts.  It's expensive, and has only a few uses out in the wild.   But usage increases.  Manufacturers get a bit better at making it.  Demand increases, costs fall.  Falling costs lead to still more demand, which in turn leads to still lower prices, and so on, until the technology has gained a 100% market share. 

The chart uses a double log scale.  On the vertical axis, each tick mark shows a halving of PV module prices.   On the horizontal axis, each tick mark shows a 10-fold increase in cumulative installations.  So each 10-fold increase in installations leads to a halving of module prices --- and vice versa.

There is probably another 10-fold increase in solar installations in prospect over the next 10 years.  Which will be associated with another halving of the cost of solar.  Meanwhile, the rapid progress of EVS and the need for stationary storage will drive down battery costs, which will continue to halve every four years.

This is irresistible.  The learning curve is being driven by fierce competition, which in turn drives rapid technological advance.  There is nothing Trump or Big Oil or coal miners or the rabid Right can do about this.  They can delay the technological advances in the USA, which will just retard the US economy, but in the rest of the world, the advance of solar plus storage to market dominance in inevitable.  Except in high latitudes.