The ANZ/RoyMorgan Australian consumer confidence is rising from a deep low--the previous low this low was in the 1990/1991 recession. As can be seen, it is a reliable leading indicator, for both recessions and upturns. I recently concluded that Australia's long, draggy recession was over, as real GDP per capita had started to rise. As can be seen, this was preceded by an upturn in the consumer confidence index.
Whereas consumer confidence has started to fall in the US, in Australia, it's still rising (data through March 2025) Australia will be much less affected by Trump's trade wars than Canada or Mexico, or, of course, the US itself.
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| Click to enlarge. My seasonal adjustment |
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