This is the average of the Fed's Empire State and Philadelphia surveys, extreme-adjusted. It correlates well with economic activity, and is among the earliest indicators available for the current month. The latest data point is for March.
The average of the Philly Fed and the Empire State indices had been rising strongly, pointing towards an economic recovery. The plunge in March is ominous, and a reversal of the trend over the last year. This is another pointer towards an economic slowdown --- I talked about falling consumer sentiment here.
Even an extreme-adjusted average of these two indices is "spiky", so perhaps we ought not read too much into the latest values. However, the evidence is mounting that Trump's tariff war, and other policy measures, are rapidly worsening business and consumer confidence, and decreasing economic activity. Every month that this heightened uncertainty continues will exacerbate the impending downturn.
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