Sunday, February 2, 2025

Wall Street is very overvalued

 From Kalani o Māui





Glossary:

P/E = Price to earnings ratio, where "earnings" equals profit per share (or, in this case, for the index as a whole.)
Trailing P/E = price relative to current earnings
Forward P/E = current price relative to forecast earnings
CAPE = cyclically adjusted P/E
P/B = price to book, i.e., price relative to the book value per share
EV/EBITDA = enterprise value relative to earnings before interest and depreciation
Q ratio = the share price relative to the replacement value of the company's assets
Mkt cap/GDP = total market capitalisation relative to nominal (i.e., not inflation-adjusted) GDP

In all cases, the higher the indicator, the more expensive/overvalued the market is.

Note that the vertical scale is shown as a percentile.  In other words, at the moment, on average, these indicators are in the top 95% of the last 125 years, which implies that Wall Street is very expensive.

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