Thursday, February 27, 2025

Bellwether Euro economy picks up

 Austria, an entrepôt economy at the centre of Europe, is a good bellwether for the whole European economy.  It's one of the first final PMIs to be released (the other early releases are "flash" or provisional, based on available responses, usually 85-90% of the normal sample).

After a mid-year slowdown last year, it's started to rise.  It's still not above the 50% recession line, but I'm becoming more and more confident that the European economy is above to start growing again.  They will certainly need it: military spending will have to increase by 1 to 2 % of GDP.  A bit of growth elsewhere will make the pain of that less onerous.

Data through Feb 2025


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