China likely to slow further

The chart below shows the year-on-year percentage change in my leading and my coinciding indices for China.  The leading index has been lagged (= plotted forward) by 9 months, so it suggests that the Chinese economy will continue to slow into 2025. 

Exactly how big China is in the context of the world economy is unclear, since official GDP data overstate its size.  It is prolly around 15% of world GDP, but is much more important in commodities, where it is responsible for perhaps half of world minerals demand.