Judo Bank's "flash" estimate for the July manufacturing PMI (derived and calculated by S&P Global) rose a little in the month from 47.2 to 47.4, but the services PMI fell, from 51.2 to 50.8. A reading below 50 suggests that the economy, or that sector of the economy, is declining.
The chart below shows the Judo Bank PMI along with the Australian Industry Group PMI (reworked to be consistent with the historical data). Both have been smoothed by fitting a centred moving average.
The chart below shows the manufacturing and the services PMIs from Judo Bank. Note the downward spikes caused by Covid lockdowns, which affected services much more than manufacturing.
Note also that the period of post-lockdown service "revenge spending" earlier this year is fizzling.
Monetary policy remains tight. Fiscal policy ditto. And China (our main export market) is in strife.
Don't expect a recovery in Australia for a while.
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