As usual, the line to watch is the thick green one, because that's the average of the two time series, which minimises random month-to-month fluctuations. Clearly, the US manufacturing sector is troughing -- that happens when the PMI or ISM cross the 50% "recession line" on the upside.
I'm still surprised by how strong the US economy is, given the stringent monetary tightening carried out by the Fed. "Revenge spending" in services has helped keep the economy afloat. But the massive fiscal stimulus of Biden's IRA program is prolly more important. The lesson for me is: don't ignore big fiscal stimuli.
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