The extreme-adjusted GDP-weighted average of the provisional ("flash") PMI for the "big 4" (US, Euro zone, UK & Japan) for December was down slightly on November's number. In the chart below it is compared to OECD GDP, and not world GDP, because the big 4 PMI calculation does not include Russia, China, India and Brazil, for which "flash" estimates are not released. The estimates were released unusually early because of the Christmas holidays.
The chart suggests that the QoQ (quarter-on-quarter) percentage change for OECD GDP will remain low for Q3 and Q4 of this year. (Q3 and Q4 data have not yet been released)
GDP in the US is picking up, despite the Fed's increase in the fed funds rate over the last year, because of Federal deficit spending in response to the "IRA". In Europe, interest rates have also gone up dramatically, but there has been no big jump in deficit spending by governments, so growth has been much weaker. Moreover, while the Fed has signalled that it will cut rates in 2024, the ECB (European Central Bank) and the BoE (Bank of England) have strongly hinted that they will not. An interesting divergence.
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