There are two different sources for "PMIs" released in China. The first is released by the NBS (National Bureau of Statistics), the other by Caixin Bank, but calculated by S&P Global. To get a more reliable idea of underlying conditions, I average the two manufacturing series and the two services/non-manufacturing series and extreme adjust the results. The average of the average (green line) gives us a rough idea of how the economy is faring. The three series are shown in the chart below.
One can easily see the effects of the Covid lockdowns and the subsequent rebounds when lockdowns were eased. Just as in other countries, the recovery in services (red dotted line) was much stronger than in manufacturing, but that recovery is fizzling. The modest uptick in manufacturing is being overwhelmed by the decline in services.
It's hard to know which Chinese data are true reflections of reality (the youth unemployment figures are no longer being released, for example, because they show just how bad things are). Perhaps the PMIs are the best window we have into the Chinese economy --- for now. And these data suggest that the Chinese economy is continuing to slide.
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