Even though services have started to slow, they are still much stronger than manufacturing. The gap between the two has never been this wide, in all my nearly 50 years as an economist and fund manager.
Will services continue to slide? My prediction is that, despite "revenge buying" after the Covid lockdowns, expenditure on restaurants, holidays, hotels, air travel and shows will in fact continue to fall. But, as ever, I might be wrong.
All the same, it looks to me as if the rebound "blip" or "spike" in the world economy in the first few months of this year is fading, and that the green line, representing the whole economy PMI for the world's largest economies, will fall below the 50% recession line in the next couple of months.
[The big 8 is made up of: the USA, the UK, Euro Zone, China, Japan, India, Brazil, Russia. Each time series is individually extreme-adjusted before the global averages are calculated, using PPP GDP weights.]
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