Yield curves point towards a recession

.... but they have at least stopped falling.

The yield curve as I measure it here is the bond yield less the Central Bank discount rate.  The data for the world is a GDP-weighted average representing countries which make up ±72% of world GDP.  The yield curve leads economic activity by a year or so, but the lag does vary from cycle to cycle.  If we ignore the GFC (which is, however, the closest to the situation we have now)  the lag averages 8 or 9 months, but the median lag is about one year.

The GFC downturn was extended and deepened when the Fed let Lehman's go, causing a banking crisis and a credit crunch, and that would have delayed the lower turning point of the cycle.   Needless to say, there is no guarantee that there will not be another banking crisis, though Central Banks will have learned from past mistakes.  Maybe.  

At any rate, whatever the lag, yield curves are more negative than they have been in 25 years, globally and in the US.  And the rate increase cycle isn't over yet.  The last time (on my data) that the US yield curve was this negative was before the deep 1974 "Great Recession" and double dip 1980 to 1982 recession.  In both those recessions, the downturn was exacerbated by the preceding oil crises.  Of course, we also had an oil crisis in this cycle, with the invasion of Ukraine.  And the effects on inflation of the surge in commodity prices, including oil, are still with us.  

Even though yield curves appear to be troughing, that doesn't mean that the world economy will start recovering immediately.  Don't forget the lags involved.