The NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) small business optimism index fell to a new 10-year low in April. As you can see from the chart, the NFIB optimism index leads the business cycle (as represented here by the QCI, shown as a deviation from its moving trend) by many months at the peak of the cycle, but by only a few months at the trough. Note though that the NFIB index rebounded a little in 2022, leading the rebound we've seen in the PMI and ISM, but has resumed its decline. We're not yet at its GFC lows, but we're getting there.
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