Technically, Taiwan's March PMI fell a little, but my extreme-adjustment algorithm regards it as a blip. The trend has been strongly up, though still below the 50% "recession line". But notice how deep below zero industrial production is. Taiwan is an exporting economy---70% of GDP is from exports. The fact that IP is so negative is telling. But the PMI tends to lead, so IP will likely improve from here. Or rather, the year-on-year change will improve.
PMIs for other countries will start being released on Monday. It's all happening! Is the world heading into recession, or do the sunlit, airy uplands of renewed growth await us? Feicfimid, as they might say on the emerald isle (I'm learning Irish. Slowly.)
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| Click on chart to see a clearer image. |
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