My very own US "medium" leading index (which leads the cycle by about 1 year) continues to decline. In the chart below, it is plotted as a deviation from trend, and with a one-year lag, giving an implicit forecast of economic activity over the next 12 months. It shows no sign that it is bottoming.
Shading shows recessions.
Expect GDP to fall from now on.
Clicking on the chart will give a much clearer image. Goddess knows why; I do not.
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