Monday, March 20, 2023

Empire State and Philly Fed point to deepening recession

The Fed's 'Empire' State and 'Philly Fed' surveys, even though they cover just the NE of the United States, are well correlated with the national business cycle.  Because these two time series are "spiky", in the chart below, I have extreme-adjusted and smoothed the average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys.

No sign of an imminent upturn!



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