Several of the regional offices of the Federal Reserve Bank do surveys of the districts they cover. The two earliest available for the month are the surveys by the Philadelphia ("Philly Fed") and the New York ("Empire State") Feds.
We have the data from these surveys for January, and the smoothed average, which correlates very well with the national ISM (Institute for supply management) surveys, slid again in January. Make of that what you will; for my part, I think the share market is too optimistic about the risks of recession. Remember that at this stage during the GFC, the Fed was already slashing interest rates. This time round, it's planning to raise them, though by smaller increments than it has been.
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| Time series are extreme-adjusted |
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