Now that we have the US ISM for December, I have been able to calculate the Big 8 average PMI (each series is extreme-adjusted and the average is weighted by each country's PPP GDP). My calculation of real GDP uses those same country weights. Note how the PMI leads GDP by several months (more at the top of the cycle than the bottom).
The Big 8 are: the USA, Euro zone, Japan, China, Brazil, Russia, India, UK
Interesting: some of the PMIs of the constituent countries of the big 8 rose in December. Europe, for example, hasn't been as badly hit by the gas shortage as expected, because it's been experiencing much warmer conditions than normal. And India is rising, while Russia is holding up well. However, the USA, Brazil, China, and the UK were down.
Rising interest rates affect economies with a lag. And the full impact of the rises that have already happened, never mind those still to happen, hasn't yet been fully reflected in economic activity. World growth is likely to continue to slow, despite the minor uptick is some PMIs,
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