Monday, January 2, 2023

Oz PMI vs Big 8 PMI

 It's hard for small countries to evade the global economic cycle.  As the world sinks into recession, smaller countries are likely to follow suit.  Australia might not have as deep a downturn as some other countries if China recovers, but the explosion of Covid infections and deaths in China may mute China's upturn, plus China's deep property recession may limit the usual Chinese government response to downturns, which is to stimulate property investment.  The markets think otherwise:  the iron ore price is rising.  On the other hand, Australian houses are hugely overvalued, and are likely to fall much further from current levels in response to sharply rising rates.  We shall see.





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