Thursday, January 12, 2023

Last 8 years hottest on record

Global temperatures up 1.2 degrees C since pre-industrial era.  Temperatures rising by 0.2 degrees C per decade.  

The *rise* in temperatures is proportional to the *level* of emissions.   Temperatures won't fall just because we cut emissions.  They'll just rise more slowly.  To stop temperatures rising altogether, we need to reduce emissions to zero.  

An annual compound reduction in emissions of 3% would reduce emissions by 26% by 2033, and halve them by 2043.   Which would mean that temperatures would rise by 0.15 degrees by 2033, and another 0.1 by 2043.  If we cut emissions by another 3% per annum by 2053, the cumulative rise in temperatures by 2053 would be 0.33 degrees, by 2063 0.38 degrees C, taking us past the 1.5 degree red line.

So far, though, emissions are still rising, though there is some hope of a 3% p.a. cut in emissions

A sustained 3% per annum emissions cut would seem to be the minimum target for every country.  And even that won't limit the increase in temperatures to 1.5 degrees C.   



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