In this report, I commented that definitional changes to US money supply data caused a huge jump in M1, which was so large it distorted my leading indices for the US. I tweaked my "medium" leading index by removing M1 for months when it was distorted, and the spike in the index in 2021 was reduced, though it still rose sharply as fiscal and monetary stimulus during and after the Covid Crash was substantial.
The updated chart with the revised leading index is shown below. While my "medium" leading index suggests a slowdown, it doesn't yet point to a deep recession, which, nevertheless, I think very likely.
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