Green electricity tipping point?

From EMBER

The world is in the middle of an energy crisis. With all the headlines, it might have been expected that coal and gas use would have increased in 2022. But that is not what happened, at least in the electricity sector. In fact, in the first half of 2022, renewables met all the growth in global electricity demand, halting the rise in fossil fuels.

1. Renewables met all growth in global electricity demand

Global electricity demand rose 3% in the first half of 2022 compared to the same period last year; this was in line with the historic average. Wind and solar met 77% of this demand growth, and hydro more than met the remainder. In China, the rise in wind and solar generation met 92% of its electricity demand rise; in the US it was 81%, while in India it was 23%.

2. Coal and gas generation remained almost unchanged

Because renewables growth met all the demand growth, fossil generation was almost unchanged. Coal declined by 1% and gas declined by 0.05%; these were offset by a slight rise in oil. Consequently, global CO2 power sector emissions were unchanged, despite the rise in electricity demand. Coal in the EU rose 15% only to cover a temporary shortfall in nuclear and hydro generation. Coal in India rose 10% because of a sharp rebound in electricity demand from the lows early last year when the Covid-19 pandemic struck hardest. These rises were offset against falls of 3% in China and 7% in the US.

3. Wind and solar growth delivered tangible cost and climate benefits

The growth in wind and solar in the first half of 2022 prevented a 4% increase in fossil generation. This avoided $40 billion USD in fuel costs and 230 Mt CO2 in emissions. In China, the growth in wind and solar enabled fossil fuel power to fall 3%, rather than rise by 1%. In India, it slowed down the rise in fossil fuel power from 12% to 9%. In the US, it slowed down the rise in fossil fuel power from 7% to 1%. In the EU, it prevented a major rise in fossil fuel power – without wind and solar, fossil generation would have risen by 16% instead of 6%.

4. Power sector emissions may yet set a new record high in 2022

In July and August there was a rise in global coal and gas generation, leaving open the possibility that power sector CO2 emissions in 2022 may yet rise, following last year’s all-time high. This happened because China’s hydro surplus turned into deficit due to record droughts, and heatwaves struck across the world, pushing up electricity demand.

 

We are getting closer to a tipping point, where clean electricity – led by wind and solar – will meet all future electricity demand growth, and thus fossil fuel power generation peaks. Renewable generation growth has matched global electricity demand growth before; in 2015 and 2019. But when we are there, that is only the beginning. The electricity sector should be quickly reducing emissions. The fact that we’re still at or close to record highs shows how much more quickly the electricity transition needs to happen.

Wind and solar are proving themselves as an effective solution as the world faces escalating climate impacts, energy insecurity and economic instability. They are bringing down costs, and improving security.

We have been here before.  In 2016, I was very hopeful that we had seen the peak in emissions from electricity generation.  I was wrong.  I want to see two years of flat or falling emissions from electricity generation, without economic recessions reducing the figures, before I believe it.