Thursday, August 11, 2022

US inflation euphoria

There was a little euphoria overnight is stock markets when US inflation statistics were released.  Headline CPI (which includes the petrol price) didn't rise month-on-month.  The markets concluded that this reduces the risk that the Fed will raise rates again.  

However, *core* CPI is still rising.  The Fed is unlikely to stop upping rates until annualised core inflation is back at its 2% target, which is most probably several months away.  And this sustained rate rise is likely to tip the USA into recession.




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