Sunday, June 19, 2022

US data suggest further slowing in June

 The two earliest surveys which can give us an idea of what's happening in the US in the latest month are the Philadelphia Fed and Empire State surveys by the Philadelphia and New York branches of the Federal Reserve Bank.  Although these surveys cover only the NE of the United States, the correlation with the national ISM  survey is good ― though not perfect. 

 As usual, the survey data are 'spiky'.  I have extreme-adjusted these time series, and also have fitted a 3-month centred moving average to the Philly Fed/Empire State series to get a clearer picture of the underlying trends.  

We're still 11 days away from 'official' ISM  and PMI  data, but what we have so far suggests a further slowdown in the US economy.  Will this make the Fed more reluctant to raise rates?  Prolly not.  They will only ease off when inflation peaks, and inflation tends to lag economic activity.




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