Friday, June 17, 2022

The oil price is linked to economic growth

 It's entirely logical ― the oil price rises when economic growth surges and falls when it slows.  Of course, boycotts and embargoes can also affect it, but the link is very clear, as this chart shows.  The index of world industrial production is my calculation, using indices for almost all countries for which monthly/quarterly industrial production is available (only a few small countries have been omitted; the index covers countries making up about 90% of world GDP).  It has been extreme-adjusted, which reduces the covid crash spike in 2020, and expressed as a percentage of its long-term moving trend.

The current oil price rise is adding to global inflation, as is Russia's war on Ukraine.  Central Banks are responding to inflation, which is the highest in 40 years, by tightening aggressively.  This will cause the world economy to slow, and the oil price to decline.  Even without Europe's oil embargo, Russia's oil exports are going to plunge in value, taking away her ability to fund her war, and driving her economy deep into recession.  



No comments:

Post a Comment