Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Economic importance of Asia keeps on rising

 Industrial production of Asia continues to grow faster than the industrial production of the world.  Different countries have led the way over the years: Japan, then SE Asia, then China.  But on the whole (there are one or two exceptions, these days including Japan) most economies in this region have higher growth rates than Europe or America.  

This is to be expected:  as economies move from undeveloped to developed, trend growth rates fall, eventually reaching the long-term limits set by technological advance and population growth.  So Japan, which grew by 10-15% a year in the 1950s, now manages just 1-2% a year.  Chinese trend growth has already started to slow, and over the next decade, Asian growth as a whole will continue to trend lower.  

As the chart is plotted on a log scale, you can see how the relative growth rate is slowing as the slope of the line diminishes.

Note the impact of the 1998/99 Asian crisis.  

The data shown are from my calculations.



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