After my analysis of Russian business confidence, I also looked at UK business confidence. This has an even better correlation with the overall PMI than it does in Russia. You'd have to conclude from these data that growth is slipping, but remains at the peaks of previous business cycles. However, *if* it keeps on slipping, you'd be looking at recession in H2 2023, entirely consistent with the rise in the Bank of England's discount rate, as extreme measures introduced to support the economy during covid are withdrawn.
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