The two manufacturing PMIs for pan-US activity showed opposite signs in April, the IHS Market one strengthening, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) one falling. As usual, my recommendation is to watch the average of the two ― the green line in the chart below. Reminder: any data point above 50 still shows an expanding economy, but a fall in the PMI shows that it is expanding more slowly. But, at current levels, these indicators are still at or above previous cyclical highs. Which shows that the economic is still expanding fast.
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