World growth slowing

 It's perfectly normal for growth to slow after a strong rebound, as 'catch-up' effects diminish.  That doesn't mean that a new recession is happening, or at least, not necessarily.   ThePMI (Purchasing manager index) surveys are the most timely indicator of the state of economies for the previous month, becoming available on the first day of the new month.  What I have done in the chart below is to extreme-adjust each country's PMI, weight them by their share in world GDP, and add the results together.   The 'Big 8' include the USA, Euro zone, the UK, Russia, Japan, Brazil, India and China, and represents 70% of world GDP.   I don't have PMIs earlier than 2011 for countries other than the EU, the USA and China,  but there are other similar surveys with data going back two decades  or more, so I spliced these series together to produce continuous data chains back to the late 1990s.

The PMI for the 'Big 8' has slipped from its post-covid highs, but is still at the levels reached in previous high points, such as the recovery from the 2008/2009 GFC and the Trump tax-cut boom in 2017/18.

We're not yet on a road to recession or stagnation.  However, as Central Banks reset interest rates back to pre-pandemic norms, the chance of a global slowdown in 2024 increases.  An attempt to cut budget deficits using austerity instead of growth makes a downturn more likely, more quickly.  Note how the world PMI fell below 50% in 2012 when the EU foolishly insisted on tax increases and spending cuts to balance member budgets.