Renewables to reach 30% by 2026

 From IEEFA

Data for the first eight months of 2021 show that wind generation has risen more than 25 percent since 2019 (pushing its market share to almost 9 percent) while utility-scale solar generation has jumped 55 percent (pushing its market share to nearly 3 percent). Combined, wind and utility-scale solar generation has gone up by 76 million megawatt-hours (MWh)—a 31 percent increase—while coal and gas generation has fallen by 1.6 percent since 2019, reflecting the ongoing transition of electricity markets to renewable energy and away from fossil fuels.

But an even bigger surge in renewable generation is coming soon. IEEFA estimates that by the end of 2026—just five years from now—wind and utility-scale solar will generate roughly 850 million MWh of electricity annually, equal to more than 21 percent of total 2020 demand.

The increase in utility-solar generation in the past two years was driven by the installation of roughly 22,500 megawatts of new capacity. The Solar Energy Industries Association now expects utility-scale installations to average more than 21,000MW a year through 2026, with a peak of 25,000MW in 2023.

These new solar projects could be generating an additional 283 million MWh of power a year by the end of 2026—more than triple the full-year 2020 level of 90.1 million MWh—for a total of 374 million MWh. Assuming that total U.S. electricity demand remains essentially flat, as it has since 2010, this would push solar’s share of overall demand to about 9.3 percent. In terms of capacity, the buildout will add roughly 129.5 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale solar generation to the U.S. grid

Continued growth is also expected in U.S. wind generation, with 37.7GW of new capacity already under construction or in advanced development, which would be added to 127.8GW in existing installed capacity. The new wind power could add 138.7 million MWh of electricity a year, an increase of 41 percent by 2026, and pushing wind’s total to 476 million MWh.

For these generation estimates, IEEFA assumed conservative capacity factors of 25 percent for new utility-scale solar and 42 percent for new wind. Capacity factors reflect how much of the maximum potential generation is actually produced. Every type of power source, including fossil fuels, has its own unique limitations, and most operate in response to variable demand and competitive markets.

For anyone that doubts such a wind and solar buildout is possible, consider what happened between 2001 and 2006—even before the huge volumes of cheap gas from the fracking boom arrived. In that short period of time, the U.S. added close to 200GW of gas-fired capacity to its then much-smaller grid, with about 133GW of that being combined cycle gas turbine facilities.

The current boom in utility-scale solar and wind is similar—but probably bigger and more durable. Solar projects are being built in nearly every corner of the country, by a multitude of independent developers, utilities and communities, and can range in scale from a megawatt in power covering a few acres to those in the hundreds of megawatts covering a square mile or more. Likewise, major wind projects continue to be built across the Great Plains from Texas to Wyoming, but the enormous potential of offshore wind from North Carolina to Massachusetts is just beginning to be developed.

30% renewables by 2026 is better than nothing.  But it's still not enough.  To halve emissions by 2030, renewables need to provide more than 80% of electricity generated by then.