Global plug-in car sales up over 80% in 2021

 From CleanTechnica

Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 72% in November 2021 compared to November 2020. There were 721,000 registrations (or 11.5% share of the overall auto market), establishing a new global record for PEV sales. Add the 632,000 units of plugless hybrids registered in November, and we have some 22% of the overall global market having some form of electrification last month. With the final month of the year also set to be a record month (one million units?), we should see over 25% share of electrified registrations in December!

Fully electric vehicles (BEVs) represented 72% of plugin registrations in November, above the year-to-date tally (69%). In total, there were some 518,000 registrations of BEVs, a new record, or 8.3% share of the overall auto market.  

With the YTD tally now above 5.5 million units (and at a record 8.1% share), and knowing that the last months of the year are traditionally strong for sales, we should be seeing the plugin vehicle (PEV) market reach some 6.5 million units this year.

For comparison, 2020 ended with 3.1 million units registered. Not bad, considering the current chip shortage, eh?

While disruption is already happening in Europe and China, we should only see consistent disruptive levels on a global scale next year, when the US market comes closer to disruptive numbers.

Weird things start to happen to the overall automotive markets once EV disruption hits them, not only regarding fuel share, like diesel sales falling off a cliff in Europe, but also in OEM standings, like the rise of Chinese OEMs in their home market, Volkswagen Group losing its grip in Europe, or the future inclusion of Tesla as one of the current US Big 4 (the others being Toyota, GM, Stellantis, and Ford).

With the global PEV market starting to approach disruptive times, as the record 11.5% share of November demonstrates, the first signs of paranormal activity in the overall global market are also starting to appear. Plugless hybrid growth rates are slowing down — after a 10% [growth] rate in September and October, November had a 14% growth rate, but these three months stayed far below the 2021 YTD average of 53%.

This could mean that after already witnessing a peak ICE moment in the global market, the peak HEV moment might come sometime next year!

(Toyota, take notice…)

Here's my chart of the available data, with a 7 month centred moving average.  (I had to estimate one or two months, because I couldn't find  values for them).  I haven't been able to publish this chart for a while, since InsideEVs stopped publishing the data.  Note that this is plotted on a logarithmic scale, because that gives a better idea of exponential growth trends, and does not include simple hybrids (HEVs).  Since these data are not seasonally adjusted, the December surge and January plunge in sales is clear.  Two points:

1. In January 2014, global EV/PHEV sales totalled 14,500.  In January this year, allowing for the seasonal decline, they're likely to reach 470,000.
2. At current growth rates, EVs/PHEVs will reach 14% of global car sales this year, 24% in 2023, 40% in 2024,  60% in 2025.  And that excludes HEVs.
3. No wonder cobalt and lithium prices are surging.
4. Does anybody still think the long-term (5 years?!) future of oil is secure?