Global electricity trends in 2020

 From EMBER

1 Pandemic paused electricity demand growth.

Global electricity demand fell slightly (-0.1%) in 2020, the first fall since 2009. But this pause has already ended: by December 2020, electricity demand was already higher than in December 2019 (India +5%, EU +2%, Japan +3%, South Korea +2%, Turkey +3%, US +2%).

2 Wind and solar showed resilient growth, rising to supply almost a tenth of global electricity.

Wind and solar generation rose robustly in 2020 by 15% (+314 TWh). This meant that wind and solar produced almost a tenth (9.4%) of the world’s electricity last year, doubling from 4.6% in 2015. Many G20 countries now get around a tenth of their electricity from wind and solar: India (9%), China (9.5%), Japan (10%), Brazil (11%), the US (12%) and Turkey (12%). Europe is leading the way, with Germany at 33% and the United Kingdom at 29%. Indonesia, Russia and Saudi Arabia still have near-zero.

3 Wind and solar helped push coal power to a record fall.

Coal fell a record 4% (-346 TWh). This was similar to the rise in wind and solar power of 314 TWh, more than the UK’s entire electricity production. This dwarfed the aggregate changes across global electricity: demand fell 23 TWh, gas and oil fell 12 TWh. A rise in hydro of 94 TWh was mostly countered by a fall of 104 TWh of nuclear. In comparison, coal collapsed almost everywhere, with large falls in the US (-20%), EU (-20%) and even India (-5%).

4 China was the only G20 country with a large increase in coal generation.

China’s coal generation rose by 2% in 2020. That was because electricity demand growth continued to outstrip new clean electricity. China’s electricity demand was 33% higher in 2020 than in 2015, rising by more than all electricity demand in India in 2020. Across those five years, China’s fossil-free generation met only 54% of the rise in electricity demand, so 46% was met from fossil generation. That pushed China’s coal generation 19% higher in five years. China is now responsible for more than half (53%) of the world’s coal-fired electricity, up from 44% in 2015.

5 Global power sector emissions were still higher than in 2015 when the Paris climate agreement was adopted.

Electricity demand rose 11% (+2536 TWh) since 2015, but the increase in clean electricity generation (+2107 TWh) didn’t keep up. That led to an increase in overall fossil generation: gas-fired electricity rose 11% (+562 TWh) and coal fell only 0.8% (-71 TWh). As a result, power sector CO2 emissions were around 2% higher in 2020 than in 2015. Fossil-free electricity met only 54% of the rise in electricity demand in China, 57% in India and 37% in Indonesia. Meanwhile in Europe, and especially the US, coal’s fall was caused not only by a rise in clean electricity, but also a rise in gas generation. Of the 10% rise in global gas generation since 2015, half of that was in the United States.

Source: The Economist

My comments:

1.  If the growth rate of the last 5 years (15% p.a.) continues for the next 5, wind and solar will make up 20% of total electricity generated.  There is every reason to expect that this growth will be maintained or increased, because wind and solar are cheaper even than the operating costs of coal.
2. Global electricity demand is growing by 2.1% p.a..   So for emissions from electricity to start falling, renewables will have to add at least 2.1% p.a. to global electricity supply for fossil fuel emissions to fall (ignoring any replacement of coal by gas).  On my calculations that will happen from 2023 onwards.  This isn't soon enough to prevent a 1.5 C degree rise.  To do that, emissions have to fall by at least 5% p.a..
3. China is critical to an early peak to emissions from generation.  The new carbon trading system set up China will take time to bite, and reforms to the electricity market, such as inter-provincial HVDC interconnectors will also only be built over time.  Emissions in China may well be falling fast by 2030, as electricity generation transitions to renewables plus nuclear, and EVs gain market share, but they're not going to fall much this decade.
4. Thus average global temperatures are likely to rise another 0.2 degrees C this decade.  Let us hope that pernicious positive feedbacks are not triggered, although already Arctic permafrost is melting every summer, and the melting of Arctic sea ice has led to Arctic temperatures rising three times faster than the world average.