EU elec demand rebounds but coal collapses

 From EMBER:

Electricity demand is back to pre-pandemic levels, but fossil fuels fail to recover as renewables show consistent growth. As a result, CO2 emissions from the power sector in H1-2021 were 12% lower than the same period before the pandemic. In H1-2021, electricity demand rose 6% vs. H1-2020 and almost fully recovered (-0.6%) to pre-pandemic (H1-2019) levels. Electricity generation from fossil fuels has not recovered and was 10% lower in H1-2021 than before the pandemic (H1-2019), despite an uptick in H1-2020. Fossil fuels were kept down by an 11% increase in renewable electricity output in H1-2021 compared to H1-2019, driven by structural growth in wind and solar and strong hydro output. Fossil fuels could have fallen further, however, nuclear output also declined 8% in H1-2021 compared to H1-2019. | Go to section 1 |

Coal generation was 16% lower (-36TWh) in H1-2021 than in H1-2019. Coal only accounted for 14% of all electricity production in H1-2021, down from 16% in H1-2019. This decrease occurred despite EU electricity demand recovering to pre-pandemic levels and a surge in fossil gas prices. The structural decline of coal generation continues. | Go to section 2 |

Clean electricity increased to provide two-thirds of EU-27’s power in H1-2021, but progress is not fast enough to meet EU climate targets. Clean electricity provided two-thirds (66%) of electricity production in the EU-27 in H1-2021, up by 3 percentage points (+24 TWh) from H1-2019. However, year-on-year progress must double throughout the next decade for the EU to reach its new 2030 climate targets (-55% GHG), and accelerate even further to reach 100% clean power by 2035. | Go to section 3 |

Generating electricity from existing fossil gas and hard coal power plants in major EU economies is now twice as expensive as new wind and solar. Substantial increases in fossil gas, coal and carbon prices in H1-2021, have pushed the costs of generating electricity at existing fossil power plants to well above the cost of electricity from new solar PV and onshore wind. Fossil gas prices have almost doubled in H1-2021, while imported hard coal prices surged by 70%. Even excluding the costs of CO2 allowances, electricity from existing fossil gas power stations is now more expensive than new wind and solar. | Go to section 4 |

A couple of weeks ago, The Economist put out a report arguing that emissions would jump during the recovery from the Covid Crash.  The evidence from Europe suggests that this is not happening, and that in geographies where renewables are a sizable percentage of generation (like Europe), the rise in electricity demand will be more than met by renewables.  Which would imply that global emissions peaked in 2019.