Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Do EVs catch fire more often than ICEVs?

There's a common trope that cars with lithium-ion batteries are much more likely to catch fire than cars with petrol or diesel engines.

This doesn't seem to be the case


Tesla's Vehicle Fire Data provided for the period 2012-2020 reveals that there has been about one vehicle fire for every 205 million miles traveled.

That's over 10-times higher than the average distance between fires than in the case of the national average of 19 million miles in the U.S., according to the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) and U.S. Department of Transportation. However, we must remember that because of the growing production and sales, most of the Tesla cars are new, way younger than the U.S. average.

Both numbers include "instances of vehicle fires caused by structure fires, arson, and other things unrelated to the vehicle," which means that the actual average distance between fires caused by the vehicle itself is even better.

Tesla has also revealed the results for the previous periods: 2012-2018 (170 million miles) and 2012-2019 (175 million miles), which indicate that the average is improving over time.

[From InsideEVs]

Source: InsideEVs



However, there doesn't seem to be any prima facie link between vehicle age and fire risk.

Today’s vehicles are older than in the past. In 1983, the average household vehicle was 7.6 years old, compared to 10.3 years old in 2017. Figure 3 shows that the number of vehicle fires per billion miles driven has fallen 81 percent over the same period. The decline has been fairly steady over time.

[From NFPA :Fire Statistics and reports]


Of course, there are other potential factors, such as (perhaps) safer roads or safer cars.  All the same, despite an increase in the average age of vehicles, the incidence of fires has fallen.  It is unlikely therefore that increasing age of a car materially increases its risk of catching fire.  Which means Tesla's younger fleet is prob'ly not a key factor in its 10-times better fire incidence rate.  

The trope is false at best, unproven at worst.

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