Wind & solar now 10% of global electricity

 From EMBER

This report shows evidence that wind and solar have quickly increased to become a major source of electricity in most countries in the world, and are successfully reducing coal burn throughout the world.

Ember’s new half-year analysis aggregates national electricity generation for 48 countries making up 83% of global electricity production. It builds on Ember’s annual Global Electricity Review, released in March 2020. 

Main findings:

• Wind and solar generation rose 14% in the first half of this year (H1-2020) compared to H1-2019, generating almost a tenth (9.8%) of global electricity. In the 48 countries analysed, wind and solar generation rose from 992 terawatt hours in 2019 to 1,129 terawatt hours in H1-2020. That meant wind and solar’s share of global electricity has risen from 8.1% in 2019 to 9.8% in H1-2020; and their share more than doubled from 4.6% in 2015, when the Paris Climate Agreement was signed. Wind and solar generated almost as much CO2-free power as nuclear power plants, which generated 10.5% of global electricity in H1-2020 and whose share remained unchanged from 2019.
• Many key countries now generate around a tenth of their electricity from wind and solar: China (10%), the US (12%), India (10%), Japan (10%), Brazil (10%) and Turkey (13%). The EU and UK were substantially higher with 21% and 33% respectively; within the EU, Germany rose to 42%. Russia is the largest country so far to shun wind and solar, with just 0.2% of its electricity from wind and solar.
• Global coal generation fell 8.3% in the first half of 2020, compared to H1-2019. This breaks a new record, following on from a year-on-year fall of 3% in 2019, which at the time was the biggest fall since at least 1990. The fall in H1-2020 is because electricity demand fell globally by 3.0% in H1-2020 due to COVID-19, as well as due to rising wind and solar. Although 70% of coal’s fall in H1-2020 can be attributed to lower electricity demand due to COVID-19, 30% can be attributed to increased wind and solar generation. The US and the EU are racing to reduce coal, with falls of 31% and 32% respectively. China’s coal fell only 2%, meaning its share of global coal generation rose to 54% so far this year, up from 50% in 2019 and 44% in 2015.
• Wind and solar have captured a five percentage points market share from coal since 2015. Coal’s share fell from 37.9% in 2015 to 33.0% in the first half of 2020, as wind and solar grew from 4.6% to 9.8%. India’s change was even more dramatic: wind and solar’s share rose from 3% of total generation in 2015 to 10% in the first half of 2020; at the same time, coal’s share fell from 77% to 68%. For the first time, the world’s coal fleet ran at less than half of its capacity this year.
• The global electricity transition is off-track for 1.5 degrees. Coal needs to fall by 13% every year this decade, and even in the face of a global pandemic coal generation has only reduced 8% in the first half of 2020. The IPCC’s 1.5 degree scenarios show coal needs to fall to just 6% of global generation by 2030, from 33% in H1-2020. The IPCC shows in all scenarios most of coal’s replacement is with wind and solar.

The question is whether wind and solar will grow exponentially or not.  The percentage from W&S has risen from 4.6% in 2015 to 9.8% in 2020, which is roughly 1% per year.  At that rate, it will take 38 years for coal to fall to zero (coal provided 38% of the world's electricity in 2018).   But if the percentage grows at the same rate as it did from 2015 to 2020, which is about 15% per annum, or doubling every 5 years, by 2025, wind and solar will make up 20% of global electricity generation.  By 2030, if growth is exponential, it will make up 40%, more than replacing coal.  

Why should growth be exponential not linear?

1. To date, since 1990, it has been, though the growth rate has slowed a little.  Why won't that continue?  It's a classic learning-curve.  As installations grow, costs fall, making installations grow even faster, and costs decline even faster.
2. Up until just a couple of years ago, renewables were more expensive than new-build coal, but now they are cheaper, and will go on getting even cheaper still.  In many places, the costs of new-build wind and solar are the same as or below the operating costs of coal.  There are powerful commercial reasons now to switch away from coal.
3. The EU's carbon price has risen sixfold over the last three years, as the EU has finally started tightening supply of permits.  There is very strong support within the  EU for imposing a carbon price on the embedded carbon in imports to the EU from countries which do not themselves have a carbon price.  No doubt there will be ructions and appeals to the WTO and possibly retaliation.  But the EU is making a sterling effort to reduce emissions.  If they don't price embedded carbon in imports, their carbon price will just lead to emissions being outsourced to countries (free riders) which don't tax carbon.  For example, an EU steel producer would be disadvantaged compared to a Chinese or Russian producer.  Applying a carbon price to imports, and exempting imports from countries which also have a carbon price will provide a powerful incentive for countries without a carbon tax to introduce one.  And these non-EU countries will apply it in turn to embedded carbon in their imports, creating a cascading shift to pricing carbon globally.  
4. So not only will renewables make inroads into coal because of the learning-curve cost declines as installations increase, but coal and oil and gas (at half the rate, but that may be too low) will increasingly pay a carbon price in addition to already unfavourable costs relative to renewables. 

Thus it seems very plausible to me that installations of wind and solar will continue to grow exponentially.  Which implies that coal will be more or less out of global electricity generation by 2030, followed by gas (unless it is synthetic natural gas, made via the Sabatier or similar process.)

Good news for the climate.

Source of basic data: IEA