Friday, May 22, 2020

ZEW index rises again

The ZEW index for Germany has had a reliable leading relationship with German  GDP over several decades.  It rose again in May, pointing towards an economic recovery by December this year (it leads GDP  by 6 months).  An argument for a V-shaped recovery.  Of course it may be wrong, this time.  But it may not.  My instincts are that the global recovery will be laggard and muted.  This indicator suggest that in Germany at least, it will not.  (German GDP not up to date, but it's late and I'm tired.  Dass ist doch das Leben.)


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