Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Unemployment zooms

Although the level of unemployment lags the economic cycle, the change in unemployment actually moves quite closely with the cycle.  Unemployment rises when the economy slows, and vice versa, which means to see the relationship you have to plot it inverted.  The chart below shows the change in the US unemployment rate over six months, inverted.  It's yet another indicator showing the depth of the US recession, and we're not even at the worst point yet.  Even Austria, which has rapidly reduced new covid infections, will only start relaxing lockdown in two weeks, and will only totally remove lockdown in a month.  The USA is several weeks away from that.



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