Wednesday, April 29, 2020

It's not just lockdown

There's been no lockdown in South Korea.  As a result of their test--trace--contact policy, there have been very few deaths.  Yet business and consumer confidence have plunged over the last couple of months, to levels not seen since the GFC.  The reason?  Because no man is an island.  Korea depends on exports to the rest of the world.  Every country, every business, every consumer depends on the economy and economies around them.  The point is that even when an individual country emerges from lockdown, it does not mean that the economy will miraculously recover.  Recovery in Korea will depend on recovery in the world.  And that's true to some extend for most economies.   The US is perhaps an exception, so the US is key to the world recovery.  But the US is very unlikely to recover quickly from this crash.  The damage in the form of lost jobs, bankrupted businesses, falling house prices, and rolling coronavirus re-infections will last many months.


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