Monday, March 2, 2020

The Covid Crash

China's official (National Bureau of Statistics) PMI came out on Saturday.  It has fallen to a record low, lower even than during the GFC.  My extreme-adjustment algorithm thinks the latest data point is an extreme, but even it still shows a sharp fall.

Why doesn't the PMI show a sharp fall every Chinese new year?  After all, the economy slows to a standstill each new year.  The answer is that Chinese new year is a planned and predictable event.  The economic crunch caused by the Coronavirus was unplanned and unforeseen.  Businesses have no way of knowing just how severe the crisis will be.  They have perhaps 1 month or 6 weeks of cash on hand.  If the crisis lasts 6 weeks, and they keep on paying their staff, they will go bankrupt.  That is a permanent situation.  If they sack staff, or put them on reduced pay, then other businesses' sales will plunge. 

This is something central banks can't do much about.  They can increase liquidity ("print money") or cut interest rates to stimulate demand.  But there is little they can do about a supply shock.  China is a critical part of global supply chains, and its economy has closed down.

Expect a deep global recession, as well as aggressive easing from central banks.

One final point.  The Spanish flu epidemic after WW1 killed between 50 and 100 million people worldwide.  So far (officially!) the Covid-19 virus has killed 3000. 


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