Hitting the wall --Philly Fed plunges.

The Empire State survey from the New York Fed pointed towards a deep downturn.  The latest of the regional Fed surveys, the "Philly Fed" gives the same message.  The nascent economic upturn has hit the wall.  It was the biggest one month fall ever recorded.

 In the chart below, I've averaged the two surveys, which reduces random fluctuations.  Now, note, the latest decline has come before the US itself goes into lockdown.  It is very likely that economic data will go on falling for several months as the impact of the virus echoes and re-echoes round the world.  So, provisionally, it seems very likely that US GDP at its worst point will be down by as much as during the GFC, that is, by -4% year on year.  And probably by more.  Note also that GDP lags the movements in the Empire State/Philly Fed average index by 3 months.  So even if Emp/Phil surveys bottom in May, GDP will only bottom in Q3.