Dallas Fed falls to record low

The Dallas Fed survey has just recorded the lowest ever value, -70, in March.  It was also the biggest month-on-month fall ever.  The fall was bigger than that seen in other regional Fed surveys, which take place earlier in the month, giving some idea of just how precipitous the decline has been in just the last couple of weeks.  But some of the steeper decline in the Dallas Fed reflects the precipitous plunge in the oil price. Note that, as you'd expect, because the Dallas Fed survey (like the other Fed surveys as well as the PMI and ISM surveys) is a diffusion index, it leads actual economic data by a couple of months.  I have plotted it with a 4 month lag to allow for this.