Monday, March 16, 2020

Coronavirus's explosive growth

An excellent chart from John Burn-Murdoch of the Financial Times (or FT)

Note that the Y-axis is a logarithmic scale.  See how the number of cases goes from 200 to 20,000 in just 15 days.  Without action the number of new cases rises by 33% EVERY DAY.  At some point, emergency departments are overwhelmed and then the death rate will rise sharply too from 1% to 5% in the general population and from 5% in the over 60s to 25%.  When overwhelmed health systems have to choose between saving the life of an old person and of a young person they will choose the young person. 

This is a catastrophe, and the US is the advanced country most incapable of dealing with the crisis because of its health system and President Trump.  Note: because of too few testing kits, the number of US cases is prolly grossly understated. 




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