Thursday, March 19, 2020

China GDP down 4% in Q1

China has released some data for January and February this year, showing very sharp declines in several macro-economic time series as a result of the virus lockdown.  E.g. car sales down 80% year-on-year, industrial production down 13.5% yoy, the volume of retail sales down 14.3%.  My alternative GDP calculation points towards 'genuine' GDP, as opposed to the official GDP data, being down by at least 4% in Q1 2020.  Even though production has restarted in China as the number of infections declines, it's only just crunching now in the rest of the world, so recovery of demand is likely to be sluggish.  It could take until Q3 or later for growth to return to normal.



I introduced my alternative calculation for China's GDP here.

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