Starship assembly line starts

If Musk's claims that Starship will cost just $5 million to build are going to be right, then Starship will have to be built on what is effectively an assembly line.  He's planning to build 2 Starships a week.  And recent images from Teslarati show a nascent assembly line in Boca Chica.

Nose cone construction at Boca Chica

Tank bulkhead construction at Boca Chica

Elon Musk has posted a new glimpse inside SpaceX’s South Texas Starship factory, revealing a nearly-completed rocket nosecone and indicating that the first upgraded Starship prototype’s flight debut is imminent.

SpaceX teams have been working around the clock for a little over a month to build the first full-scale, flightworthy Starship prototype, a process that only began after two ‘test tanks’ were fabricated, assembled, and pressurized until they burst on January 10th and 28th. Built with improved tools and methods, those test results – particularly from the second test tank – allowed SpaceX to empirically confirm that its current infrastructure and techniques are ready to manufacture orbital-class (and even human-rated) Starships right now.

And so work on the first truly flightworthy Starship prototype – known as SN01 (serial number 01) – thus began in earnest around mid-January, perhaps less than a month ago. Over the course of that month, SpaceX’s South Texas team has made spectacular progress. Starship SN01’s business half – comprised of a Raptor engine section, a liquid oxygen tank, a methane tank, and all associated tank domes and plumbing – is likely just a single big stacking and welding event away from being structurally complete.

Without exaggerating, it’s safe to say that SpaceX has effectively gone from a handful of parts worth of Texas rocket production to a multi-vehicle, Starship production line concurrently manufacturing multiple vehicles in about eight weeks. While it would be theoretically easy for critics and a more general audience to see little more than some cheap stainless steel parts in a few hastily-constructed temporary tents, the reality is that SpaceX has already proven – at a minimum – that a steel Starship built with the exact same tools, facilities, and methods will likely be capable of spaceflight.

SpaceX’s January 2020 Starship test tank program proved as much, demonstrating that thin steel tanks built in tents can serve as orbital-class pressure vessels and survive at internal pressures greater as high as 8.5 bar (125 psi) while filled with cryogenic (extremely cold) liquid. Meanwhile, Tesla’s Fremont factory General Assembly line 4 (GA4) – having continuously churned out high-quality Model 3s for more than a year – has proven that sprung structures can make for fast, cheap, and more or less permanent factory solutions. Prospective SpaceX competitor Blue Origin even based its own brand new headquarters – opened in January 2020 – around an odd U-shaped sprung structure.

So the first flight of SN1 is perhaps weeks away.  Initially, SpceX will do 150 m "hops", then it will increase to 1 k "hops", steadily increasing to 20 k flights, where they will test the "skydiver" landing technique on the way back (and we will see whether SN1 can withstand the associated stresses).

From a piece I wrote earlier (slightly amended):

The SpaceX/Mars timetable still looks doable, unless there is a disaster:

H1 2020: Tests to 20+ kms altitude.

End 2020: Full stack (i.e., Super Heavy booster plus Starship) operational.  First orbital flights of the Starship.

Early 2021: First commercial customers (for satellites), launches of Starlink constellation

Late 2022: Uncrewed mission to Mars (Mars is in opposition in December)

2023??: First commercial space station.  Launched on Starship, built by non-SpaceX companies—or maybe even by SpaceX

2023: 'Dear Moon' circumlunar expedition

2024??: Moon Base Alpha

Early 2025: Crewed mission to Mars  (How many ships?  Here's my analysis)

Early 2027: Second expedition to Mars.  Return of at least one Starship.  

2029: Third expedition to Mars.  Martian population reaches 300.  If Starship works, SpaceX will start designing even bigger rockets, capable of carrying more than 100 passengers, so Mars's population in 2029 could be more than 300.  Return of some Starships.