In the chart below, I show the extreme-adjusted versions of both indicators as well as their average (the green line). This average is the one to watch, because taking an average miminises the random month-to-month fluctuations.
At some point, falling interest rates will trigger a recovery. But it's prolly too soon for that to happen—based on my US leading and my US longer-leading indices, at least 6 months too soon, and we have the massive complicating factor of Trump's trade wars as well as deepening recession in Europe. It may be that the decline is about to stop, but that's a long way from saying the recovery has begun. This is likely to be a U-shaped rather than a V-shaped recession. And that prolly means that the share market will get it wrong, going into euphoria every time the Fed cuts rates, and then getting gloomy as economic growth stagnates. A very tricky time to be an investor.
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