Forgiving climate denialists

In 2009, electricity from new solar farms cost 3.2 times as much as electricity generated by new coal-fired power stations.  In 2019, that ratio has reversed.  New coal now costs 3.2 times as much as new solar.  Wind has followed a similar though less steep trajectory.  In 2009, wind cost 20% more than coal; now it costs 60% less.  And in 2009, there were still question marks about how to integrate renewables into the grid, how to handle a different sort of grid, where instead  not only demand but also supply was spread out.  Battery storage was very costly.

As for electric cars (EVs) the Nissan Leaf wasn't even introduced until the end of 2010, and the first Teslas went on sale in Q3 2012, when a princely 321 were sold.  For comparison, Tesla sold 95,200 cars in Q2 this year.

To argue for a switch to renewables back in 2009 was an argument for higher energy costs. The counter argument was that the costs of inaction were even greater.  But you could point to the global temperature record.  In 2009, you could argue that global temperatures were no higher than they were in 1998 (an El Niño year).  One could make a case (I didn't) that acting to reduce CO₂ emissions would be costly and also unnecessary.  Of course, the lies, half truths, and spin from conservative "think" tanks and from fossil fuel producers made the most of these points and embellished them.

So it was easy for skeptics to argue that there wasn't a strong case for action.  It was easy to denigrate those who argued for action as greenie leftist tree-huggers, unrealistic about the need to keep the lights on.   It was an understandable argument, even if some of us disagreed.  And anyway, it was implausible to argue for global action, because poor countries simply wouldn't switch to renewables given their much greater costs.

Fast forward to today.  Renewables aren't just cheaper than new coal.  In more and more places, a new wind or solar farm produces cheaper electricity than the operating cost of coal power plants.  In other words, digging up, transporting and burning the coal costs more than the total cost of building a new wind or solar farm from scratch.  Even if you include 8 hours of storage.  Lazard estimates that the marginal cost of coal in the US is between $27 and $45/MWh.  The average cost of a 50/50 wind/solar grid with 8 hours of storage is $45/MWh this year.  8 hours of storage will be enough to take our grids to 90% renewables, and the balance can be supplied by hydro, biomass, power-to-gas, etc.

Global EV sales are exploding, doubling every 18 months.  In June, for example, global EV sales were up 64% year-on-year.  Every year, the cost of batteries falls 20%.  By 2025 or 6, not only will EVs be cheaper to run than petrol cars (ICEVs) they will also be cheaper to buy.  EV sales will dominate and then replace ICEV sales, and CO₂ emissions will start to fall fast.

These trends mean that we will easily be able to slash emissions, while saving money.  The exact opposite of the situation in 2009.

At the same time, it's obvious that the "pause" in the rise of global temperatures after 1998 (an artifact of choosing an  El Niño year as a starting point) is well and truly over.  So we can no longer tell ourselves comforting lies that our carbon emissions (and our methane emissions!) are having no effect.  It's not just the data—ordinary people can see as they experience yet another heatwave, yet another flood, that global warming is real and it's happening now, not in some distant far-off future.

This is a pincer movement. The ways to solve the problem of global warming are getting cheaper every year, just as the evidence of global heating increases every year.

In 2009, to deny we needed to take action could—just—be an honest argument.  But to say the same today shows either that you are ignorant of the facts (unforgivable if you are a politician in charge of climate policy) or that you are a shyster, and you simply care more for your "contributions" from fossil fuel producers than for the health of the world and of mankind.  I can forgive being opposed to action on climate change in 2009.  Not any more.